By ΠΠΎΠ²Π΅Π½ΡΡΠ°ΠΉΠ½ Π ΠΎΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅Ρ
ΠΠΎΠ²Π΅Π½ΡΡΠ°ΠΉΠ½ Π ΠΎΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅Ρ, 2021, ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡ Β«Π’ΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ²ΡΠΉ Π½ΠΎΠ½-ΡΠΈΠΊΡΠ½Β»
ΠΠ½ΠΈΠ³Π° Π ΠΎΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅ΡΠ° ΠΠΎΠ²Π΅Π½ΡΡΠ°ΠΉΠ½Π° Β«ΠΠΎΠ³Π΄Π° Π³Π΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΡΠ΅ΡΠΏΠΈΡ ΠΏΠΎΡΠ°ΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅Β» ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΊΠ°Π·ΡΠ²Π°Π΅Ρ ΠΈΡΡΠΎΡΠΈΡ Π²Π·Π»Π΅ΡΠ° ΠΈ ΠΏΠ°Π΄Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ Ρ Π΅Π΄ΠΆ-ΡΠΎΠ½Π΄Π° Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). Π ΡΠ΅Π½ΡΡΠ΅ ΠΏΠΎΠ²Π΅ΡΡΠ²ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ β Π³ΡΡΠΏΠΏΠ° ΡΡΠ΅Π½ΡΡ ΠΈ Π½ΠΎΠ±Π΅Π»Π΅Π²ΡΠΊΠΈΡ Π»Π°ΡΡΠ΅Π°ΡΠΎΠ², ΠΏΠΎΠΏΡΡΠ°Π²ΡΠΈΡ ΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡΡ ΠΌΠ°ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠ΅ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ ΠΈ Β«Π·Π°ΠΊΠΎΠ½ Π±ΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠΈΡ ΡΠΈΡΠ΅Π»Β» Π΄Π»Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ±ΡΠ»ΠΈ Π½Π° ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΠ΅ ΠΎΠ±Π»ΠΈΠ³Π°ΡΠΈΠΉ. ΠΠ½ΠΈΠ³Π° ΠΈΡΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΡΠ΅Ρ, ΠΊΠ°ΠΊ ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΎΡΠ²Π΅ΡΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΡ, ΡΠ»ΠΎΠΆΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΎΠ²ΡΡ ΠΈΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠΎΠ² ΠΈ Π½Π΅Π΄ΠΎΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠ° ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡΠ½ΡΡ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠΎΠ² ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π΅Π»ΠΈ ΠΊ ΠΊΡΠ°Ρ Ρ, Π΅Π΄Π²Π° Π½Π΅ Π²ΡΠ·Π²Π°Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΡ Π³Π»ΠΎΠ±Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΉ ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠΉ ΠΊΡΠΈΠ·ΠΈΡ.
ΠΠ²ΡΠΎΡ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·ΠΈΡΡΠ΅Ρ ΠΏΡΠΈΡΠΈΠ½Ρ, ΠΏΠΎ ΠΊΠΎΡΠΎΡΡΠΌ ΡΠ»ΠΎΠΆΠ½ΡΠ΅ Π°Π»Π³ΠΎΡΠΈΡΠΌΡ, ΡΠ°Π·ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠ°Π½Π½ΡΠ΅ Π³Π΅Π½ΠΈΡΠΌΠΈ, ΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°Π»ΠΈΡΡ Π½Π΅ΡΠΏΠΎΡΠΎΠ±Π½Ρ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π²ΠΈΠ΄Π΅ΡΡ ΠΈ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΎΡΠ²ΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΡ ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ°ΡΡΡΠΎΡΡ. ΠΡΠΎΠ±ΠΎΠ΅ Π²Π½ΠΈΠΌΠ°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΡΠ΄Π΅Π»ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ ΡΠΎΠ»ΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π»ΠΎΠ²Π΅ΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠΎΡΠ°, ΠΏΡΠΈΡ ΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΠΈ ΡΡΠ΅ΠΉΠ΄Π΅ΡΠΎΠ² ΠΈ Π½Π΅ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΡΠΊΠ°Π·ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡΠ½ΡΡ Π½Π°ΡΡΡΠΎΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ. ΠΡΠ΄Π΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎ ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΌΠ°ΡΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π΅ΡΡΡ Π²Π»ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΈΠ΅ ΡΠΎΡΡΠΈΠΉΡΠΊΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π΄Π΅ΡΠΎΠ»ΡΠ° 1998 Π³ΠΎΠ΄Π° Π½Π° ΠΊΡΠΈΠ·ΠΈΡ LTCM, ΡΡΠ°Π²ΡΠΈΠΉ ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΎΡΠΎΠΌ ΠΊΡΠ°Ρ Π°.
Roger Lowenstein, 2021, Top Non-Fiction Series
Roger Lowenstein's "When Genius Failed" tells the story of the rise and fall of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). The narrative centers on a group of scientists and Nobel laureates who attempted to apply mathematical models and the "law of large numbers" to profit from the bond market. The book explores how overconfidence, the complexity of financial instruments, and the underestimation of market risks led to a collapse that nearly triggered a global financial crisis.
The author analyzes the reasons why complex algorithms developed by geniuses were unable to foresee and prevent the catastrophe. Particular attention is paid to the role of the human factor, the psychology of traders, and the unpredictability of market sentiment. The impact of the 1998 Russian default on the LTCM crisis, which became a catalyst for the collapse, is also examined.